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作者:gpk电子网址_gpk电子网址更新时间:2020-10-29 06:47:27

充分验证Q2后乳制品行业景气和双龙头竞争缓和逻辑预计2020H2行业景气维持&竞争趋缓,收入同增双位数以上、利润弹性更大皇冠注册平台_皇冠官网2020年大概率完成股权激励目标展望2021-2022年,较低基数叠加原奶周期见顶,伊利盈利弹性将持续兑现长期看好公司竞争壁垒巩固&份额抢占,横向拓展矿泉水、饮料等其他产品,支撑长维度稳健较快发展,上调公司未来一年目标价为50元,对应2021年PE为36倍,维持“买入”评级

  2020Q2公司收入/净利润分别同增23%/72%,大超市场预期充分验证Q2后乳制品行业景气和双龙头竞争缓和逻辑皇冠注册平台_皇冠官网预计2020H2行业景气维持&竞争趋缓,收入同增双位数以上、利润弹性更大2020年大概率完成股权激励目标展望2021-2022年,较低基数叠加原奶周期见顶,伊利盈利弹性将持续兑现

长期看好公司竞争壁垒巩固&份额抢占,横向拓展矿泉水、饮料等其他产品,支撑长维度稳健较快发展,上调公司未来一年目标价为50元,对应2021年PE为36倍,维持“买入”评级  ▍2020Q2公司收入/净利润分别同增22.5%/72.3%,估计扣非扣费净利润同增92.0%,大超市场预期皇冠注册平台_皇冠官网  2020H1公司实现营收475亿、同增5.5%,归母净利润37亿、同降1.2%,扣非扣费净利润40亿、同增15.5%其中2020Q2公司实现营收269亿、同增22.5%,归母净利润26亿、同比高增72.3%,估计扣非扣费净利润26亿、同比高增92.0%,收入/净利润均超市场预期2020H1公司毛利率约38.4%,其中Q1/Q2毛利率分别为37.8%/38.9%,同比-2.3Pcts/+1.6Pcts,2020Q2毛利率提升主要系行业竞争趋缓

  2020H1销售费率23.8%、同降0.8Pct,其中Q1/Q2销售费率分别为22.8%/23.8%,同比+1.1Pcts/-2.5Pcts,Q2销售费率下降主要系广告费率下降2020H1管理费率4.5%、同增0.2Pct,主要系股权激励费用皇冠注册平台_皇冠官网综上,2020H1净利率为7.9%,同减0.5Pct,其中2020Q2净利率9.6%、同增2.8Pcts  ▍2020Q2白奶引领复苏、实现强劲增长促销减弱&费效提升兑现较大利润弹性

  2020Q2收入同增22.5%,其中量增19-20%、结构贡献2-3%、促销减弱带来价格正贡献拆分来看:①液体乳收入同增16.9%,较Q1(-19%)明显加速,其中白奶引领高增,金典同增25%、普通白奶双位数增长,安慕希亦向上复苏、同增10%左右皇冠注册平台_皇冠官网②2020H1奶粉收入同增52%,其中westland并表贡献10多亿,婴配粉同增双位数、成人粉持平③2020Q2冷饮同增9%毛利率端,2020Q2毛利率同增1.6%,其中原奶成本4-5月持平,6月个位数上涨,整体持平略增,另外促销减弱推动价格上涨亦一定程度拉升毛利率

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